It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have piled up.
According to Opta, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge they must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
