A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
